Where "really great basketball" happens!

The NBA marketing heads got it right, “amazing” really does happen in the L – or at least, it has so far this season. Seasons of recent memory barely register when taking into account what’s been happening so far in 2007. It seems that just about every team has players that we’re excited about watching, and several top ones that have talent that we’d easily pay good money to see. The rookies, from Durant to Belinelli, are fresh, exciting and fun to watch play. The stars are delivering like UPS, putting up crazy numbers. Scoring, in general, is up. Defense is solid. The games are fun again. Perhaps the only thing missing is a lot of last second shots. There were some, but more will come in due time.

The NBA, as it was in the early 80s and early 90s is in a state of bloom. While traditional powerhouses like San Antonio and Detroit continue to roll along like finely assembled Bentleys, new comers like the Orlando Magic and New Orleans Hornets are racing into prime position. It’s an exciting time to be a fan. Every night, there are individual match-ups and team rivalries that demand attention. Perhaps, it’s a good time to pony up for that NBA league pass. But, before we get ahead of ourselves, get too excited and start sounding like the aforementioned NBA marketing department let’s talk about what’s caught our attention during the young NBA season.

As the big time wins pile up, the Kobe trade talks simmer down

Understand that while we watch a lot of NBA basketball, the team that we follow the closest and watch the most is the Los Angeles Lakers, so we’ll start our trip around the NBA at Kobe’s house, Staples Center. Their mark of 6-3 and their current spot as the 8th best team in the Western Conference isn’t overly impressive, but the Lakers have probably been one of the top 3, or 4, most remarkable teams in the young season. Consider the teams they’ve played so far; Phoenix, Utah, New Orleans, Minnesota, Houston (twice), San Antonio, Detroit and Chicago. Take Chicago (2-7) and Minnesota (1-7) out of the equation, and the combined record of the Lakers’ remaining opponents is a whopping 50-24. And, all of those teams, barring serious injury or a miracle, will make the playoffs. That success is even more impressive when you consider that the roster’s average age at 23.8 (even with 33 year old Derek Fisher thrown in) is among the youngest in the league.

But while those numbers are well and good, does this Lakers team have the potential to make serious noise in the playoffs? Or, will it be a one and out yet again? The key to that answer is defense. In Kobe Bryant, LA has one of the most dominant scorers in the game, ever. So, offense shouldn’t be an issue. In fact, the Lakers are putting up 104 points per game this season, good for 5th highest in the league. Such was the case last year too, when they ranked 5th best in scoring, and the year before when they ranked 8th. The Lakers can score – Kobe and a team of trained monkeys could put up at least 100 points. The problem has been on the defensive end. While the Lakers are d-ing up now, can they keep up the intensity throughout the season and, most importantly, during the playoffs? If they can, and if they can also stay healthy, team Kobe has a legit shot at playing well into June. The key will be doing the little things on defense, pressuring the post passer, limiting penetration, being opportunistic with turnovers and just playing hard and smart on defense at all times. Good defense will keep Kobe in a Lakers uniform for a long time to come.

Smoke and mirrors behind Magic in Orlando

Another young team that has made its mark on the young season is the Orlando Magic. A record so far of 9-2 gives them a tie for the second best mark in the league with the New Orleans Hornets, along with a recent win against the best team, record wise, in the league, the new-look Boston Celtics. But, take a close look at the Magic roster and other than newly acquired Rashard Lewis and Dwight Howard, and possibly point guard Jameer Nelson, the collection of names isn’t very impressive.

The Magic put up 102.8 points a game and more importantly yield 95.6 points on the defensive end, for a solid differential of 7.2 points per game. The Magic also shoot a ton of threes and a ton of free-throws – they’re 3rd in the league in 3 point attempts and 4th in the league in free-throw attempts. The Denver Nuggets are the only other team with that distinction of being in the top 5 in those 2 categories.

But, those are the only places that the Magic truly excel. Everywhere else, their stats are either pretty mediocre or not quite top 10. So, while the 9-2 record is impressive, other than the win against Boston, every other team that the Magic have beat so far this season, including Washington, Minnesota, Toronto, New York, Seattle, Cleveland and New Jersey, has a record of .500 or lower. While Orlando may not be as good as their gaudy record indicates, the team – with Lewis on the wing and Howard in the post – is probably talented enough to win a lot of games in a weak Eastern Conference. But, their lack of depth and overall talent level from 3-12 could be exposed during the playoffs.

The big 3

This just in, Boston is good! Not sure if Garnett had a little pre-season chat with Tom Brady, but the Celtics so far has been basketball’s version of the New England Patriots. KG, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and the rest is killing people, no prisoners. The numbers bear it out. Boston has the stingiest defense in the league, giving up a paltry 89.4 points per game. They are matching the stellar defense by scoring 102.7 per game for a differential of 13.2 points – by far the highest in the league (the Hornets and the Nuggets are tied for second in differential at 9.1 points per game).

The bottom line is that this revived version of the Celtics is legit and has the talent to get to the NBA finals. Some might argue that their early season schedule has been weak, but there’s no denying the supernova-like presence of the 3 All-Stars. Yes, in a seven game series, given the type of suffocating defense they play, the Cs have the ability to beat teams like the Spurs, Suns, Mavericks, et al.

One man show

Team achievements aside, individual players are also stepping up and impressing so far this season.

Among the rookies, Kevin Durant has possibly wrapped up the rookie of the year trophy earlier than any 1st year player in recent memory (perhaps because of the absense of one Mr. Oden, or perhaps not). Consider this, Durant is averaging close to 20 points per game (19.7 to be exact) and his closest competitor in that category is Yi “I live in Milwaukee, my neighbor is a cow…no really, a real cow” Jianlian. The Chinese sensation is averaging 10.3 points per game – no other rookie this year is even in double figures. You think David Stern isn’t already preparing his intro speech for Durant’s ROY trophy presentation?

But the rookies really only add to an NBA roster that is so incredibly talented right now. Sure you’ve got all-time names like Kobe, LeBron, Duncan, Wade, Nash, Garnett and Nowitzki, but then there is a second tier with amazingly talented guys like T-Mac, Carmelo, D-Howe, Ming, Pierce, Arenas and Iverson and a third tier with Vince Carter, Kevin Martin, Redd, Ginobili, Butler, Rashard, Jesus Shuttlesworth, Chris Paul, Durant and Marion and a fourth tier with Al Jeff, Aldridge, Deng, Barbosa, Gasol, Gerald Wallace -- there’s just so many players in the NBA today that can play, and are fun to watch. We haven’t had this much talent, top to bottom, in the league for a long, long time.

In 2007-2008, NBA action is fantastic! Oh wait, wrong adjective. It’s amazing!

2007-2008 NBA season predictions

Remember those high school yearbook predictions about which of your friends were “most likely to succeed”, or “most likely to be living in a van down by the river”? Remember those? Yeah, so do we. Reminiscing about the high-school days got us thinking, though. What if we looked at the upcoming 2007/2008 NBA season like it was one big high school cafeteria? You’ve got the popular kids like Iverson and LeBron. You’ve got your perfectionist loners like Kobe, entirely too focused to make any friends. Then you’ve got the foreign kids like Yao Ming and Manu Ginobili – still learning their place, but good at heart. And, of course, who can forget the nerds? See Tim Duncan, awkward, yet brilliant.

So, what would a season preview be like if we looked at the coming NBA campaign as if all of the NBA stars were enrolled in David Stern High School? Who (what team) would be the most likely to succeed (or win a championship)? Which student (read player) is most likely to become president (or league MVP)? Who is most likely to change (or improve)? All good questions, which demand good answers.

So without further adieu, we present our somewhat unconventional look at the 2007/2008 NBA season.

Let’s start with the team predictions.

“Most likely to succeed” – Phoenix Suns. Bad calls won’t stop the Suns from winning the championship this season. If Steve Nash and Grant Hill can stay healthy going into the playoffs, the Suns will overpower their opponents with their precision passing, unselfish play and lights-out shooting. We generally believe that defense wins championships, but no other team is good enough defensively themselves to slow down this Suns team. Phoenix will take home the championship this year.

“Most likely to fail” – Minnesota Timberwolves. Don’t get us wrong, for his age the kid can play. But when Al Jefferson is your best scoring option, your team has some serious issues. Kevin McHale wants to rebuild, but he’ll be starting from ground zero. George Mikan must be turning over in his grave. The T’Wolves will end up as the worst team in the league.

“Most likely to be a surprise success” – Portland Trailblazers. Too bad for them the Blazers are on the West Coast, because in the East, even without injured super rook Greg Oden, this squad could challenge for a playoff spot. Look for Brandon Roy, Martell Webster and Lamarcus Aldridge to form a formidable young trio, and watch the Blazers play with a lot of passion, hustle and heart. The Blazers will be the year’s biggest surprise.

“Most likely to go from the lottery to the playoffs” – New Orleans Hornets. Their three biggest stars, Peja Stojakovic, Chris Paul and David West each missed a good chunk of time at various points during the season last year, yet the Hornets finished only 3 games back of the final playoff spot. The rise of the Hornets will be complete in 2008, as coach Byron Scott has enough talent to lead this team into the playoffs.

“Most likely to get their coach fired” – New York Knicks. The Knicks have reloaded as only the Knicks can, bringing in even more headaches to an already migraine-inducing roster. Owner James Dolan was on the cusp of firing Coach Isiah Thomas last year, so even the smallest hiccup at MSG could see the end of “Zeke’s” tenure as a NBA coach.

Now on to the individual player predictions.

“Most likely to succeed” – LeBron James. With the status of consistent contributors Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic in limbo, LeBron James will be asked to do a lot more in order to keep the Cavaliers in top form. Expect LeBron to step up his game, lead the Cavs to the playoffs yet again, and take home his first season MVP trophy.

“Freshman of the year” – Kevin Durant. This one is a no-brainer. Durant is the most talented of the 2007/2008 rookie class, is in a perfect situation where he’ll be counted on to score a lot of points and is the ROY favorite going into the season. The odds are seriously stacked against other rookies like Al Horford and Mike Conley, Jr. Even if #1 pick Greg Oden didn’t get hurt, Durant would probably still take home the ROY hardware.

“Most likely to be a surprise success” – Danny Granger. The third season is usually the break-out year for most NBA youngsters, and Granger is in for the biggest break-out of all. The Pacers forward, who averaged 14 points and nearly 5 boards a game will take over as the legitimate second option behind Jermaine O’Neal. And with JO likely to miss his share of games, or possibly get traded, Granger is in line for some serious improvement in 2007/2008.

“Most defensive” – Emeka Okafor. If he can stay healthy, Okafor could easily lead the league in blocked shots. Wing players hardly ever win this award, so players like Gerald Wallace, Raja Bell and Bruce Bowen probably won’t get much consideration, and with Ben Wallace on the downside of his career Okafor is ready to step in and claim the best defensive player label.

“Most likely to move” – Jermaine O’Neal. While the Kobe Bryant trade rumors dominate the conversation and probably will do so until he is dealt at some point, the all-star most likely to be moved before the February trade deadline is the Pacers own Jermaine O’Neal. JO has a massive contract, nearing $20 million per season, and injury concerns, but team president Larry Bird is chomping at the bit to get the youth movement started asap – meaning Granger and Shawne Williams could soon take JO’s place as the face of the Indiana Pacers. Bird will likely find a suitor among one of the Eastern conference competitors looking to keep pace with the new-look Celtics.

Those are our capsule predictions of the upcoming NBA season. Now, let the games begin.

Portland Trailblazers lose golden child Greg Oden

What does Portland Trailblazers GM Kevin Pritchard regret the most? The fact that Greg Oden didn't pay attention to his recurrent knee pain earlier this summer, leading to his microfracture knee surgery and the news that he will miss his entire rookie season. Taking Oden ahead of the supremely talented wing player Kevin Durant. Or, trading away 20-10 guy Zach Randolph, which, given Oden's current state, leaves Portland with the worst front-line in the NBA -- one that's perhaps less deep than some college teams.

Whatever the case, microfracture surgery is no small matter. NBA players Kenyon Martin and Chris Webber both had the surgery and became a shell of their former selves post-surgery. On the other side of the spectrum, Amare Stoudemire of the Phoenix Suns seems to have made a full recovery, returning to his All-Star caliber performance levels last season. Oden is young, so all things being equal, he probably has a pretty decent shot at recovering fully. But, it's going to take a lot of drive and hard work from the young center.

One thing is for sure, the Seattle Sonics, who picked Kevin Durant with the second pick in last season's draft, must be feeling pretty good right about now.

Team USA trims down for FIBA run

Four players, including guard Mike Miller, and forwards Kevin Durant, Tyson Chandler and Nick Collision, found themselves squarely on the bubble as the final round of cuts for the US National Team approached. In the end, Durant and Collision will be staying at home, as the US basketball team begins its long run back to Olympic gold, beginning with the FIBA Americas Tournament.

As much as we’ve been touting Kevin Durant, ever since the first game he stepped on the court wearing a Texas Longhorns uniform, he is too young and inexperienced for international basketball – besides, the team has too many experienced NBA pros with similar skills in Kobe, Carmelo and LeBron. Team USA did well in picking a shooter and a shot-blocker to round out the squad.

The FIBA Americas Tournament begins for Team USA with a game on Wednesday, August 22 against Venezuela. The game will be shown at 11pm Eastern Time on either ESPN Classic or ESPN 360 – it will be replayed on Thursday, August 23 at 1am Eastern on ESPN2 and 12pm Eastern on NBA TV. A full TV schedule can be found here.

The national team isn’t without its faults, but we’re more excited and confident in this Team USA squad than we have been in quite some time. Part of it is because of the depth and addition of shooters like Michael Redd and Mike Miller, but it mainly has to do with the fact that Kobe is finally playing for the national team. On a nightly basis he puts a mediocre Los Angeles Lakers team on his shoulder and refuses to let them lose. Imagine how valuable he’ll be in the 4th quarter of games on the national stage.

"Kobe is as good a player as there is on the planet and he's a team oriented player," said Team USA head coach Mike Krzyzewski. "He's just as good defensively as he is offensively. That's a nice thing to have."

Joining Kobe on Team USA for the FIBA Americas Tournament will be: LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, Amare Stoudamire, Jason Kidd, Chauncey Billups, Michael Redd, Mike Miller, Tyson Chandler, Tayshaun Prince and Deron Williams.

We can’t wait for tip-off against Venezuela!