Patriots so-called confidence is starting to wear thin

The New England Patriots are treading carelessly close to that thin line between confidence and arrogance. All season opposing fans and neutral bystanders alike have questioned whether the Pats and Head Coach Bill Belichick were purposefully running up the score. Now the Patriots themselves are whining about possible rules infractions by conference rivals the Indianapolis Colts.

After his team squeaked out a slim 24-20 victory against the Colts on Sunday, Patriots President Jonathan Kraft accused the Colts of distracting tactics, including enhancing the home crowd by playing digital crowd noise over the stadium speakers. Apparently, that would be against NFL rules.

The Patriots were obviously hoping for another blow-out, while making a serious statement to the rest of the league, the media and fans. Unfortunately for them, Peyton Manning and the Colts were not at all interested in conceding such a result. But, just because you didn’t roll over your opponents as you had hoped, does that mean you accuse your opponents of cheating? And even if they were cheating, the Patriots, who themselves earlier this year were implicated and fined for cheating, are in no position to act all high and mighty when it comes to scrupulous tactics that bend the NFL rules.

After being the door-mat of the NFL for decades, under Belichick the Patriots had become a classy NFL franchise. Unfortunately, it seems that the unprecedented success this season is going to their head a little bit, as the confident swagger is starting to look a little like obnoxious haughtiness.

This New England team hasn’t won anything just yet and last time we checked, despite the result on Sunday, Indianapolis is still the defending Super Bowl champion. It would be wise for the Patriots to keep that in mind and maintain some humility, lest arrogance be their ultimate demise during what otherwise could be one of the most historic Super Bowl runs ever.

Will history repeat itself during latest Colts-Patriots showdown?

The 8-0 undefeated New England Patriots play the 7-0 undefeated Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, in what will be the highest profile regular season game of the current 2007-2008 season. The general consensus, from the talking heads on sports talk radio to the fan on the street, is that the Patriots high-powered offense will prove to be too much for the Colts, leading to yet another New England blowout. But, to look ahead to the game on Sunday, we must look back to the past. More specifically, the AFC Conference Championship Sunday in January 2007, when the Colts beat the Patriots 38-34 and went on to take home the Super Bowl crown.

A fumble recovery in the Colt’s end-zone, a Corey Dillon TD run and an Asante Samuel interception return for a touchdown had the Patriots up big early. In fact, the Colts went into half-time down 21-6. But, of course, we all know what happened next. Playing at home under the dome in Indianapolis, Peyton Manning and the Colts orchestrated the largest comeback in Conference Championship game history. The Patriots defense could only hold the offensive juggernaut of Manning, Harrison, Addai, Wayne and company in check for one half. On the opening drive of the second half, the Colts marched down the field and Manning scored the team’s first touchdown of the game with a 1-yard scramble. The flood-gates had opened, and the team went on to score another 25 points en route to the win.

All those expecting a Patriots blowout this weekend should pay very close attention to last year’s epic battle. Sure, the Patriots offense is reaching historic proportions – averaging by far more points per game, 41.4, than any team ever – but the Colts defense is also better than last season. The Colts have the #1 ranked pass defense in the game, giving up a measly 165.4 yards per contest. Their run defense, which was much maligned during certain points last year, has solidified in giving up 107.4 yards per game for a rank of #13 in the league. The defensive line, led by sack-master Dwight Freeney, is playing with more discipline – respecting the run more and being more selective in rushing the quarterback. The Colts defense overall is the second toughest in the league to score on, giving up a mere 14.6 points per game.

On the other side, the Colts offense is not to shabby either, putting up 32 points per game and gaining just about 400 total yards per contest – and that’s with soon-to-be Hall of Fame receiver Marvin Harrison missing significant time because of injury. The video game numbers the Patriots offense is putting up may be overshadowing what Manning and company are doing in Indy, but the Colts offense is just about on par with what they’ve done in year’s past. Of course, the Colts will be facing a New England defense that’s giving up 15.9 points per game, good for fifth in the league. The ranking of fifth in the league also extends to both their team run and pass defensive numbers – the Pats are giving up 87 yards on the ground and 181.5 yards through the air per game.

So, what do those numbers mean and who will win on Sunday? More or less, we expect a repeat of last year’s Conference Championship game. Just as they’re done with every team they played this year, the Patriots will surprise the Colts defense early with their speed at wide receiver and the deep passing game. We expect the Pats to come out and dominate both sides of the ball and take a big early lead. But, just like last year, the Patriots defense just isn't dominant enough to contain Manning and the Colts offensive horses, particularly when the team goes into hurry up mode – they have a tendency to overwhelm defenses with a mix of play action passing, screens, and Joseph Addai runs. In the end, the Patriots should hold off the Colts and head back home with a close win, but, as history tells us, don’t underestimate the Indianapolis offense – even if they’re down by 15 points at the half.

NFL Watercooler: A recap of week 1

There are two Monday Night Football games still remaining, but the majority of week 1 of the National Football League season is in the books. As we tend to do during week 1 of every NFL season, we spent Thursday evening and most of Sunday plopped in front of a TV with a laptop in tow, keeping close tabs on all of the opening weekend games. There really weren’t any major surprises, in terms of team or player performances, and after watching all of the teams in action we’re okay with sticking to our pre-season predictions.

However, it was definitely a busy weekend and there were some significant happenings of note in week 1 of the NFL season, including:

Peyton Manning. If you drafted him in the first round of your fantasy football league, you must be feeling really good about yourself right about now. Manning looked great against the New Orleans Saints and looks poised to have a monster year. The emergence of Joseph Addai and the running game will open up the passing game again for Manning, as it did during Edgerrin James’ heyday with the Colts. Could he approach the record 49 TDs he threw during the 2004 season?

Who looked worse, the Browns or the Chiefs? Both teams looked absolutely pathetic, particularly offensively, but we’ll take the Chiefs by a nose. We expect Chief’s running back Larry Johnson to bounce back next week, so the Chiefs will at least have some semblance of a running game. Also, on the over/under, we are picking week 3 as the official start of the Brady Quinn era in Cleveland.

News flash: Adrian Peterson is talented

Adrian Peterson is in for a big rookie year and will challenge for ROY considerations, but the Vikings looked better than they actually are against a fatigued Falcons team – the Michael Vick saga must have had some significant effect on Atlanta, as they looked tired both mentally and physically. Although, we do expect Joey Harrington to bounce back and have a decent 2007 season.

Washington Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell seems to have an US Army certified cannon for an arm. But, his accuracy is about as consistent as former attorney general Roberto Gonzales’ testimony on wire tapping. Campbell threw above, behind and way ahead of his receivers several times during the Redskins game against Miami. We expect the accuracy to improve as the year progresses, but we also expect a ton of interceptions from Campbell (he threw 2 on Sunday). As pretty as some of his passes can be, we can’t see the Redskins making the playoffs this season with the inexperienced Campbell at the helm.

Randy Moss had a breakout game for the Patriots. But, he also had a breakout game in his first game for the Raiders, and we all know what eventually happened there. Those are of course two completely different situations and we’re not saying that Moss won’t be in for a big year with the Patriots, but beware of injuries and of conflict with Tom Brady and/or Bill Belichick at some point during the season.

The Cowboys and Giants (and NBC) puts on a show

The Cowboys/Giants Sunday night game was a lot of fun to watch. Dallas QB Tony Romo threw for 5 touchdowns and the Giants’ Eli Manning threw 4 TDs. Even the pre-game show on NBC, Football Night in America, was intelligent and entertaining, with Bob Costas, Keith Olbermann, Chris Collingsworth, Tiki Barber, and Jerome Bettis in the studio, and Al Michaels and John Madden calling the game. Good stuff.

When Chris Brown can stay healthy (he has missed a total of 12 games in the last 2 seasons), he’s a pretty good running back. Brown torched a very good Jacksonville run defense by racking up an astounding 175 yards on the ground – pretty damn impressive. If Brown can avoid the injury bug, he should claim the starting HB spot from LenDale White in Tennessee.

Please God, make the Bears bench Grossman...please!

We must say we underestimated the Chicago Bears defense, because we expected in our season predictions that they might be a little soft this year. But, in week 1 against a really good San Diego Chargers offense, the Bears D was about as soft as a brick wall. With anchors Tommie Harris and Mike Brown healthy to start the year, joined by names like Urlacher, Tillman, Briggs, Vasher, et al, the Bears mercilessly stifled the Chargers’ running game, holding NFL MVP LaDainian Tomlinson to a total of 25 yards on the ground on 17 attempts. But, as good as the defense looked on Sunday the Bears’ offense looked equally as bad. Backup Brian Griese may not be the answer either, but coach Lovie Smith’s Rex Grossman experiment needs to end now – never let him even touch a football again, please.

If you’re into fantasy football, think about adding the following players, who may still be sitting on your league’s waiver wire: Chris Brown (RB, Titans), Ronald Curry (WR, Raiders), Eric Johnson (TE, Saints), Brady Quinn (QB, Browns), Wes Welker (WR, Patriots), Matt Schaub (QB, Texans).

And finally, if you watched any of the games on Sunday, you probably saw the Nike ad titled “Leave Nothing” with Chargers LB Shawne Merriman and Rams RB Stephen Jackson. Although it debuted earlier, Nike bought a ton of Sunday air time to showcase the ad for the masses. Check it out here on YouTube. Great concept, great execution, very intense – one of the best football ads we’ve seen come out of the Nike marketing machine in some time. Michael Mann (yes, that Michael Mann of “Heat” and “Miami Vice” fame) directed the commercial, which features music from the film “The Last of the Mohicans”.

All my rowdy friends are here...well you know. We make our picks for the new NFL season.

Sure it’s past Labor Day, but for most of the country the weather here in the US still feels a lot like summer. Folks are still going to the beach, putting up that fence in the back yard, fighting unbearable heat, playing those late evening pick-up basketball games at the local court or simply enjoying the still relatively long days. But all of that extracurricular activity, for football fans at least, is about to come to an abrupt end, as the National Football League kicks off its 2007-2008 season with tonight’s game between the Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints.

To commemorate the start of the NFL season, we thought we’d slip on our prognostic’s hat and go through our picks for the upcoming season – from each of the individual division winners and wild card teams in the AFC and NFC, to the eventual champion of Super Bowl XLII.

First up, the all-powerful, uber-competitive American Football Conference:

AFC East Winner: New England Patriots – Brady finally has some WR targets to throw at, and given the talent infusion we wouldn’t bet against a Belichick coached team.

AFC North Winner: Cincinnati Bengals – A rookie coach in Pittsburgh, a rookie QB who will probably start by mid-season in Cleveland and little offense to speak of in Baltimore means that the Bengals will sort of win this division by default.

AFC South Winner: Indianapolis Colts – The Colts are one of the top 3 teams in the league and they play in one of the worst divisions. Even our poor math skills can calculate the winner of the South division.

AFC West Winner: San Diego Chargers – The Chargers are probably the most talented team in the AFC, perhaps the NFL, with studs on both sides of the ball. Despite Norv Turner at head coach, they take the division with ease.

AFC Wild Card Teams: Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens.

Now for the less powerful, not-too-competitive National Football Conference:

NFC East Winner: Philadelphia Eagles – If McNabb stays healthy, and it is definitely a big “if”, we’re taking the Eagles by a slim margin. Jerry Jones’ Cowboys are very good, but their secondary and QB Tony Romo are somewhat suspect. The Redskins and Giants are in for a sub-500 campaign.

NFC North Winner: Chicago Bears – The Bears defense won’t be as good as the past two seasons and their QB Rex Grossman may very well be benched by mid-season, but the monsters of the midway will easily handle Green Bay, Minnesota and Detroit to win this division.

NFC South Winner: New Orleans Saints – We really believe that the Carolina Panthers will have a huge bounce-back year, but we also think that Reggie Bush can become the LT of the NFC – besides, the no-longer ‘Aints are such a feel good story.

NFC West Winner: St. Louis Rams – Every team in this division has serious flaws, but if the Rams can play some semblance of defense, their offense will overpower the rest of the teams in the weak NFC West.

NFC Wild Card Teams: Carolina Panthers and Dallas Cowboys

So now, the Super Bowl picks.

If the New England Patriots are able to get home field advantage, they will roll over San Diego and/or Indianapolis in Foxboro to go to yet another Super Bowl. But, if San Diego is at home in the AFC Championship game, we may find ourselves talking about Philip Rivers and Tomlinson as the co-Super Bowl MVPs. We, however, tend to think that the Patriots will somehow end up with the best record in the AFC.

On the NFC side, if McNabb can stay healthy all season, especially going into the playoffs, we’d take the Eagles, but we don’t think he can or will. So, we’ll pick the New Orleans Saints, and red-hot quarterback Drew Brees, to join the party in Arizona.

Super Bowl Matchup: New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints

Super Bowl Winner: As much as we hate to say it, New England Patriots