2007-2008 NBA season predictions

Remember those high school yearbook predictions about which of your friends were “most likely to succeed”, or “most likely to be living in a van down by the river”? Remember those? Yeah, so do we. Reminiscing about the high-school days got us thinking, though. What if we looked at the upcoming 2007/2008 NBA season like it was one big high school cafeteria? You’ve got the popular kids like Iverson and LeBron. You’ve got your perfectionist loners like Kobe, entirely too focused to make any friends. Then you’ve got the foreign kids like Yao Ming and Manu Ginobili – still learning their place, but good at heart. And, of course, who can forget the nerds? See Tim Duncan, awkward, yet brilliant.

So, what would a season preview be like if we looked at the coming NBA campaign as if all of the NBA stars were enrolled in David Stern High School? Who (what team) would be the most likely to succeed (or win a championship)? Which student (read player) is most likely to become president (or league MVP)? Who is most likely to change (or improve)? All good questions, which demand good answers.

So without further adieu, we present our somewhat unconventional look at the 2007/2008 NBA season.

Let’s start with the team predictions.

“Most likely to succeed” – Phoenix Suns. Bad calls won’t stop the Suns from winning the championship this season. If Steve Nash and Grant Hill can stay healthy going into the playoffs, the Suns will overpower their opponents with their precision passing, unselfish play and lights-out shooting. We generally believe that defense wins championships, but no other team is good enough defensively themselves to slow down this Suns team. Phoenix will take home the championship this year.

“Most likely to fail” – Minnesota Timberwolves. Don’t get us wrong, for his age the kid can play. But when Al Jefferson is your best scoring option, your team has some serious issues. Kevin McHale wants to rebuild, but he’ll be starting from ground zero. George Mikan must be turning over in his grave. The T’Wolves will end up as the worst team in the league.

“Most likely to be a surprise success” – Portland Trailblazers. Too bad for them the Blazers are on the West Coast, because in the East, even without injured super rook Greg Oden, this squad could challenge for a playoff spot. Look for Brandon Roy, Martell Webster and Lamarcus Aldridge to form a formidable young trio, and watch the Blazers play with a lot of passion, hustle and heart. The Blazers will be the year’s biggest surprise.

“Most likely to go from the lottery to the playoffs” – New Orleans Hornets. Their three biggest stars, Peja Stojakovic, Chris Paul and David West each missed a good chunk of time at various points during the season last year, yet the Hornets finished only 3 games back of the final playoff spot. The rise of the Hornets will be complete in 2008, as coach Byron Scott has enough talent to lead this team into the playoffs.

“Most likely to get their coach fired” – New York Knicks. The Knicks have reloaded as only the Knicks can, bringing in even more headaches to an already migraine-inducing roster. Owner James Dolan was on the cusp of firing Coach Isiah Thomas last year, so even the smallest hiccup at MSG could see the end of “Zeke’s” tenure as a NBA coach.

Now on to the individual player predictions.

“Most likely to succeed” – LeBron James. With the status of consistent contributors Anderson Varejao and Sasha Pavlovic in limbo, LeBron James will be asked to do a lot more in order to keep the Cavaliers in top form. Expect LeBron to step up his game, lead the Cavs to the playoffs yet again, and take home his first season MVP trophy.

“Freshman of the year” – Kevin Durant. This one is a no-brainer. Durant is the most talented of the 2007/2008 rookie class, is in a perfect situation where he’ll be counted on to score a lot of points and is the ROY favorite going into the season. The odds are seriously stacked against other rookies like Al Horford and Mike Conley, Jr. Even if #1 pick Greg Oden didn’t get hurt, Durant would probably still take home the ROY hardware.

“Most likely to be a surprise success” – Danny Granger. The third season is usually the break-out year for most NBA youngsters, and Granger is in for the biggest break-out of all. The Pacers forward, who averaged 14 points and nearly 5 boards a game will take over as the legitimate second option behind Jermaine O’Neal. And with JO likely to miss his share of games, or possibly get traded, Granger is in line for some serious improvement in 2007/2008.

“Most defensive” – Emeka Okafor. If he can stay healthy, Okafor could easily lead the league in blocked shots. Wing players hardly ever win this award, so players like Gerald Wallace, Raja Bell and Bruce Bowen probably won’t get much consideration, and with Ben Wallace on the downside of his career Okafor is ready to step in and claim the best defensive player label.

“Most likely to move” – Jermaine O’Neal. While the Kobe Bryant trade rumors dominate the conversation and probably will do so until he is dealt at some point, the all-star most likely to be moved before the February trade deadline is the Pacers own Jermaine O’Neal. JO has a massive contract, nearing $20 million per season, and injury concerns, but team president Larry Bird is chomping at the bit to get the youth movement started asap – meaning Granger and Shawne Williams could soon take JO’s place as the face of the Indiana Pacers. Bird will likely find a suitor among one of the Eastern conference competitors looking to keep pace with the new-look Celtics.

Those are our capsule predictions of the upcoming NBA season. Now, let the games begin.

Portland Trailblazers lose golden child Greg Oden

What does Portland Trailblazers GM Kevin Pritchard regret the most? The fact that Greg Oden didn't pay attention to his recurrent knee pain earlier this summer, leading to his microfracture knee surgery and the news that he will miss his entire rookie season. Taking Oden ahead of the supremely talented wing player Kevin Durant. Or, trading away 20-10 guy Zach Randolph, which, given Oden's current state, leaves Portland with the worst front-line in the NBA -- one that's perhaps less deep than some college teams.

Whatever the case, microfracture surgery is no small matter. NBA players Kenyon Martin and Chris Webber both had the surgery and became a shell of their former selves post-surgery. On the other side of the spectrum, Amare Stoudemire of the Phoenix Suns seems to have made a full recovery, returning to his All-Star caliber performance levels last season. Oden is young, so all things being equal, he probably has a pretty decent shot at recovering fully. But, it's going to take a lot of drive and hard work from the young center.

One thing is for sure, the Seattle Sonics, who picked Kevin Durant with the second pick in last season's draft, must be feeling pretty good right about now.

NBA Watercooler: August 13, 2007

Our journey around the league begins in Seattle, where minority owner Aubrey McClendon, according to reports, plans to move the Sonics to Oklahoma City. But don’t believe some of the sensational headlines in the mainstream media, which gathered most of its facts from a profile on McClendon in the Oklahoma Journal Record. In the article, McClendon did say:

“We didn’t buy the team to keep it in Seattle; we hoped to come here (Oklahoma City). We know it’s a little more difficult financially here in Oklahoma City, but we think it’s great for the community and if we could break even we’d be thrilled.”

However, a few paragraphs earlier he also said the following, putting the pressure clearly on the Seattle government officials to approve new stadium funding and leaving the door open for the Sonics to remain in Seattle:

“They’ve got 60 days to make some decisions they haven’t been willing to make in the past year, and if they make them in a way that satisfies Clay (the team’s majority owner), then the team will stay there. If they don’t meet the requirements he’s laid out, the team will move and Clay has indicated they’ll come to Oklahoma City.”

This is not really the breaking news that it’s being made out to be. We’ve know for some time that the new ownership in Seattle has been playing hardball with the city for a new arena, threatening to take their shiny new Kevin Durant down to good ‘ol Oklahoma. In 60 days, or sooner, we’ll see who’s able to stick to their guns, the city or the out of town owners.

Next stop San Antonio, where former Portland Trailblazers starting small forward and Portland State standout Ime Udoka is leaving home and has agreed in principle to sign with the Spurs. Udoka is a good shooter, hitting more than 40 percent of his shots from 3-point range last season, and brings youth and athleticism to the defending NBA champs. He won’t be a critical cog just yet, but he’s certainly a good complimentary player for 2008 and a solid prospect beyond that.

Finally, we hit Los Angeles where the Clippers signed…wait a minute, who cares about some no-name role-player the Clippers just signed. If we’re talking about signing no-name role players, let’s hear from the man who’s turned it into an art form, Mitch Kup-cake the GM of your very own Los Angeles Lakers. Here’s what Kup-cake had to say recently about his “brilliant” off-season moves:

"If this was the team that we started the season off with, I would be fine with it. I feel that we're an improved team over last year.”

He went on to say:

“I look at our team and look at a very balanced team with veteran and young players. I do feel there is more pressure or more expectations to dramatically change this team. My season-ending comments were that we were going to be more aggressive than we normally are. That's a byproduct of the season ending the way it did. But having said that, we're not going to do deals or sign players just to do it. We're going to do things we feel are going to improve the team. We feel that our team as it is structured right now is improved over last year.”

As inept as Kup-cake is at being a NBA GM, he’s not a complete idiot. It’s fair to say that given the addition of Derek Fisher and the improved health of Chris Mihm, Vlade Radmonavic and Lamar Odom the Lakers will be a stronger team this season than last. But, that’s not what Laker fans and its lone superstar Kobe Bryant demands from this team. Laker fans are hardly satisfied with humiliating yearly first-round playoff exists and unproductive off-seasons.

The time is now. Whether it’s a straight two-team deal to bring Jermaine O’Neal to town, or a creative salary-cap manipulating three- or four-team swap that does the same, there needs to be some movement soon. Step up to the plate Mitch! Or soon enough, Laker fans will be speaking in unison asking Jerry Buss to buy you a one-way ticket out of town. Who would you rather keep around? The best player in the NBA? Or, the most inept GM in the NBA?